Project Signal · Phase 1
Project Signal · Phase 1 · Resale Commercial Steering

Confidence in the commercial system.

The math isn't the missing piece. The missing piece is that uncertainty is currently implicit, unresolved, and discovered too late — which creates volatility, manual reconciliation, and erodes trust in what should be a daily decision signal. This proposal describes the Commercial Steering Engine: a governed daily control loop that extends the existing data aggregation layer into a decision system. Phase 1 delivers the resale workflow — the largest and most volatile line of business, and the fastest place to prove value without disrupting frontline flow.

Neural — pattern, association “This deal looks like the ones that usually close.”
Symbolic — meaning, rules, proof “Given these facts and these rules, this margin follows.”
01 · DEFINE

What neurosymbolic AI actually is.

Neurosymbolic AI is a hybrid architecture that combines the pattern recognition of neural networks with the logical rigor of symbolic reasoning.

Large language models reason probabilistically — excellent at reading a messy opportunity note or summarizing a vendor bulletin, but they cannot show their work in a form a CFO would accept at quarter-end. Symbolic systems are the opposite: rigid, explicit, and fully auditable, but unable to parse a procurement email on their own.

Neurosymbolic systems use the neural side to perceive — pulling structured facts out of CRM, ERP, vendor portals, and inboxes — and the symbolic side to decide — applying your pricing policy, vendor programs, and forecasting discipline with deterministic precision. The neural model proposes. The symbolic engine disposes.

01 — Neural
Perceive

Read the mess.

Extract entities and intent from CRM notes, vendor price-lists, quote PDFs, supplier emails, tariff bulletins, and contract terms — the unstructured matter of a reseller's day.

02 — Ontology
Represent

Give it shape.

Map every fact into a formal model of the commercial world: what a Customer is, what a VendorProgram is, how PriceLock relates to LandedMargin, which Renewal feeds which ForecastPeriod.

03 — Symbolic
Reason

Apply the policy.

Execute pricing guidelines, discount authority, rebate eligibility, FX posture, and forecasting discipline as logic. Every conclusion traceable to a named rule and a specific fact.

04 — Neural (again)
Explain

Write it up.

Generate deal memos, pricing rationales, rep coaching notes, and exec-ready forecast narratives grounded in the reasoner's output — never hallucinated, always traceable.

02 · REASON

How the two systems actually think.

The difference isn't about accuracy on any single task — it's about the kind of cognition each system performs. An LLM generates the most plausible next token. A symbolic reasoner evaluates the truth value of propositions against a formal knowledge base. For a reseller, that gap is the difference between a forecast that reads well and one you can bet the quarter on.

Large Language Model

Statistical next-token prediction

“Based on the deals I've seen, this one probably closes in May at around 19 percent margin.”
Mechanism
Transformer attention predicts the next token given context. Reasoning is an emergent side-effect of scale — not a guarantee.
Knowledge
Implicit. Compressed into billions of weights. Impossible to inspect, version, or selectively update. Your margin policy lives in a PDF the model may or may not have attended to.
Consistency
Probabilistic. The same pipeline at 9am and 2pm can produce different forecasts — and the model won't tell you which to trust.
Traceability
None. The model cannot cite which training example, which deal, or which weight produced its conclusion.
Strength
Reading messy opportunity notes, summarizing vendor bulletins, drafting customer-facing language, recognizing intent in a procurement email.
Weakness
Multi-step pricing math, rebate eligibility, currency propagation, edge cases, and any decision a CFO needs to defend in an audit.
Neurosymbolic System

Logic over a knowledge graph

“Given these facts and these rules, this margin follows — here is the proof, line by line.”
Mechanism
Neural extraction feeds an ontology of customers, deals, SKUs, vendor programs, and contracts. A reasoner applies rule systems (Datalog, RETE) to derive conclusions deterministically.
Knowledge
Explicit. Your pricing matrix, discount authority grid, and forecasting discipline live in a knowledge base you can read, version, and edit like source code.
Consistency
Deterministic. Same facts plus same rules always produce the same forecast. Reproducible across runs and across reps.
Traceability
Complete. Every inference chains back to specific facts and named rules — a proof tree ready for finance, audit, or the board.
Strength
Pricing discipline, rebate-aware margin, FX & tariff propagation, renewal risk scoring, portfolio-level forecast reconciliation.
Weakness
Brittle on unstructured input without a neural front-end. Requires investment in the ontology and rule authoring — but that investment becomes enterprise memory.
+

Going deeper — what's happening inside each system & why it matters

Inside an LLM

A rep's opportunity note — "Big refresh, Cisco + Azure, maybe Q2, customer haggling for 12 pts off list" — arrives as text. The model tokenizes it and passes the tokens through dozens of transformer layers, each applying attention across the sequence. At each position it produces a probability distribution over its vocabulary and samples the next token.

There is no separate "reasoning step." What looks like reasoning — chain-of-thought — is the model generating text that resembles reasoning it has seen in training data. It often gets the answer right because the pattern is well-represented. It sometimes gets it confidently wrong for the same reason.

The model has no persistent representation of your pricing policy. Even if you paste the policy into context, the model's attention to it is probabilistic; there is no guarantee rule PR-RENEWAL-02 will fire when it should.

Inside a Neurosymbolic System

The same note arrives. A neural extractor parses it into structured facts: Opportunity(id=O1, customer=C-Acme, vendors=[Cisco,Azure], closeQ=inferred, discountReq=0.12).

These facts are asserted into the knowledge graph. A reasoner evaluates every applicable rule. PR-DISC-04 is represented as executable logic: IF discount > authority(rep) THEN require_desk_review. FX-PROP-01 propagates today's EUR/USD into the quote. RB-TIER-03 checks whether adding this deal tips Cisco Gold to Platinum — unlocking 180 bps of backend rebate.

The conclusion isn't generated — it's derived. Every derivation produces a proof: the fact, the rule, and the binding. That proof is what makes the number defensible, consistent, and reproducible.

Kahneman System 1 — fast, associative

System 1 is pattern recognition at speed — the brain's autopilot. Fluent, confident, excellent for familiar problems. It is also where bias lives. When the pattern matches something common, System 1 is fast and accurate. When the situation is ambiguous — a new hyperscaler program, a novel vendor promo, a customer whose pattern has shifted — it produces a confident answer that can be materially wrong. A large language model is System 1 made mechanical.

Kahneman System 2 — slow, deliberate

System 2 is effortful thinking — applying policy, working through multi-step pricing math, reconciling a forecast against portfolio constraints. Slower and more expensive, but it is the only kind of thinking that produces an auditable trail of why a number was what it was. Forecasting and pricing at this scale are System 2 disciplines. A neurosymbolic system operationalizes System 2 — and can apply several modes of formal reasoning, the right one for the question.

Reasoning modes

Different questions demand different kinds of thinking.

Because a neurosymbolic system has an explicit model of the commercial world, it can apply the reasoning mode that fits the question — not just probabilistic association. Each of these shows up somewhere in a reseller's week.

Mode 01 · Deductive

What must be true.

Given facts and rules, derive what must follow. Certainty, not probability.

In resaleIf rep discount > 15% and deal > $250k, desk review is required. Not judgment — a logical consequence.
?
Mode 02 · Abductive

The best explanation.

Given incomplete observations, infer what is most likely. Used to fill gaps in CRM.

In resaleOpportunity missing close date, but shape matches Cisco refresh pattern — best inference: 68-day cycle, lands mid-Q2.
Mode 03 · Causal

What drives what.

Reason about cause and effect, not just correlation. Trace margin loads to their origin.

In resaleVendor price-lock expiry → street price up 4.2% → landed margin down 180 bps. Each link traceable.
Mode 04 · Constraint-sat.

All of these at once.

Find a price that satisfies customer target, margin floor, vendor program, and rep authority simultaneously.

In resaleWhat mix of HW discount + services uplift keeps blended GM ≥ 14% while meeting customer's 11-pt ask?
~
Mode 05 · Counterfactual

What if.

With a structured world model, simulate changes — what happens if the dollar strengthens, if a renewal slips, if tariffs land.

In resaleIf EUR/USD moves 3%, European HW margin compresses by 90 bps across 42 live deals. Reprice window: 6 days.
03 · ONTOLOGY

An ontology is a shared mental model
— for machines.

Think of an ontology as the vocabulary and grammar of your business, written in a form a computer can reason over.

When an account executive says “a mid-market cyber refresh, Palo Alto through TD Synnex on the Platinum tier, with three years of managed services and a marketplace co-sell to Azure,” every noun is loaded with meaning — and every noun connects to others. Vendor tier unlocks rebate eligibility. Distributor choice shapes landed cost. Marketplace co-sell affects quota counting and incentive. Managed services unlock recurring revenue, which changes the renewal forecast shape.

An ontology makes that web explicit. It names the classes (Customer, Opportunity, Quote, LineItem, Vendor, Distributor), the properties (TCV, price-lock expiry, margin floor, tier status), and the relationships (a Quote hasLineItem, an Opportunity routedVia a Distributor, a Contract rolls_into a ForecastPeriod).

Without an ontology, the LLM knows the words. With an ontology, the system knows the meaning. Rules become composable and inheritable — a rule that applies to "all marketplace co-sell opportunities" automatically applies to anything classified as such. You write the rule once, against the concept.

Most importantly, ontologies compose across domains. A deal ontology plugs into a vendor-program ontology plugs into a services & renewals ontology plugs into a forecast ontology. The same structure that powers pricing decisions powers renewals management, vendor scorecards, and CFO-grade forecast reconciliation.

I.

Meaning, not matching.

An LLM might see "Cisco Catalyst" and "C9300-48UXM" as unrelated strings. An ontology knows they resolve to the same SKU concept, that the SKU belongs to the Enterprise Networking family, and that family carries a 22% target margin floor — not the 14% applied to commodity endpoints.

II.

Rules follow concepts.

A rule attached to Marketplace Co-sell Opportunity automatically applies to every deal classified as such — without re-authoring across AWS, Azure, and GCP variants. Your pricing manual becomes a small, maintainable tree instead of a sprawling SharePoint doc.

III.

Cross-domain consistency.

The same Customer anchors opportunity pricing, renewal forecasting, services attach rates, and rebate eligibility. One customer record resolves to one entity everywhere — the foundation of a reconciled forecast instead of five conflicting spreadsheets.

04 · FRICTIONS & TARGET

Where the commercial system loses confidence today.

Two domains create most of the erosion in the daily decision signal: pricing — where margin guidance is uneven and guardrails are enforced manually — and forecasting — where updates are late, effort is high, and stability is low. They show up as different problems in leadership meetings but they are one commercial motion seen from two sides. Phase 1 resolves both together.

Domain 01

Pricing — governed, conforming-flow.

Current frictions
  • Lack of differentiated margin guidance across categories, vendors, clients, and strategic intent
  • Heavy reliance on manual checks; slow cycle times; frequent exceptions; uneven margin outcomes
  • Margin leakage from vendor cost volatility and price-lock windows; inconsistent enforcement across resale, professional services, and managed services
  • Some services subcontracted to third parties — cost-of-service opaque until billing reconciliation
  • No structural link between pricing posture and win-rate feedback; decisions are one-off, not learning
Target state
  • Governed pricing — margin floors, price-lock windows, and renewal bands enforced by default; conforming deals flow through
  • Pricing guidance derived from the combination of underlying economic drivers and strategic margin targets
  • Conforming deals flow fast; a governed exception queue holds only true out-of-bounds items, each with an explicit reason code
  • Vendor cost treated as a first-class live input — the cost side gets the same rigor as the margin side
  • Margin-setting optimized across win rate, revenue, and profit — not a single target applied flat
Domain 02

Forecasting — stable, timely, trusted.

Current frictions
  • Variance-to-plan build is sound in construct — but execution is manual and spreadsheet-driven
  • Late updates; high effort to produce; limited change propagation when drivers move
  • Limited stability run-to-run; forecast outputs are difficult to trust and expensive to produce
  • Leadership confidence erodes; downstream decisions (pricing posture, vendor negotiations) lose leverage
  • Uncertainty is currently implicit, unresolved, and discovered too late — volatility compounds
Target state
  • Consistent, timely, stable forecasting process with clear hygiene and reduced manual effort
  • Forecast-ready data integrity — structurally incomplete items cannot silently distort the forward view
  • Confidence-weighted output with a clear "what changed, why" decomposition leadership can steer on
  • Reliable accuracy; earlier risk visibility; foundation for utilization-aware and volatility-responsive pricing
  • Uncertainty surfaced early and resolved explicitly — governance drives exceptions to quick resolution
The throughline

What leadership is asking for is confidence — that the numbers are stable enough to steer the business with, that pricing reflects intent rather than urgency, and that risk is surfaced early rather than concentrated in the last two weeks of the quarter.

05 · FOUNDATION

Extending — not replacing.

A real operating engine already runs daily: the existing data aggregation layer produces point-in-time snapshots with auditable history and anchors the business on a sound construct — plan, actuals, invoiced, accruals, backlog, a clear variance-to-plan, and pipeline used to assess whether the gap can realistically be closed. Phase 1 does not replace that backbone. It turns it into a decision system by adding the five control capabilities the steering loop requires.

What you have today

Existing data aggregation layer.

Daily-running engine with auditable history and a sound variance-to-plan construct. This is the foundation Phase 1 builds on — and the reason Phase 1 can be delivered without frontline disruption.

  • Daily snapshots with point-in-time integrity and change history
  • Variance-to-plan construct: plan vs actuals vs invoiced vs accruals vs backlog
  • Pipeline anchored to the gap-closure view
  • Auditable history across sources — every prior snapshot retrievable
  • Already instrumented for resale — the largest, most volatile line of business
What Phase 1 adds

Five missing control capabilities.

Each capability is the thing that turns daily data into daily decisions. None replaces an existing process — all five bolt on to the aggregation layer and operate as governed control loops.

  • Decision-ready dataset — signals ingested and normalized into a single daily view leadership can act on
  • Forecast-ready gating — structurally incomplete items cannot silently distort the forward view
  • "No Dates" elimination loop — opportunity-to-fulfillment handoff becomes a prerequisite, not recurring cleanup
  • Confidence-weighted forecasting with explicit "what changed, why" so leadership can steer earlier
  • Guardrail-first pricing — margin floors and price-lock risk enforced by default; only true out-of-bounds deals routed for review
Phase 1 treats resale as the proving ground — roughly half of revenue, already instrumented, and the place where volatility is most costly. Once the steering loop is proven on resale, the same workflow extends to professional services, managed services, and staff augmentation with the same ontology and rule shape.
06 · COMMERCIAL STEERING ENGINE

From isolated optimization
to a globally optimized outcome.

The Commercial Steering Engine combines pricing and forecasting into a single governed control loop — turning strategic goals into tactical deal-level reality, and turning tactical reality into a reliable leadership signal. It goes from isolated optimization in silos to a globally optimized commercial outcome landscape.

What follows is the full engine anatomy: the operating model, the data blueprint that feeds it, the four artifacts leadership actually receives, the mechanics of how deals get priced and how the forecast gets built, the scenario engine that answers "what if," and the patterns of commercial steering this finally resolves.

06.1 · Operating model

Four audiences. One system.

What runs daily

The engine.

Continuous ingestion from CRM, ERP, vendor portals, distributor feeds, FX & tariff sources. Rule engine re-evaluates the whole commercial state every 15 minutes.

  • ~940 open opportunities reasoned over each cycle
  • 780 active contracts scored for renewal risk
  • Live vendor price feeds monitored for lock expiry
  • FX & tariff deltas propagated into landed margin
  • Pipeline hygiene rules enforce conforming-deal gate
Cadence · Continuous · 15 min cycle
What execs see

The control pack.

One page each morning. The committed number with confidence band. A short list of fast movers that actually need leadership attention. The lock-risk exposure and margin at stake.

  • Daily commit & variance to plan — with drivers
  • Fast movers: ≤ 12 deals that need a decision this week
  • Lock-risk: price-lock expiries in next 7 days
  • Weekly steering pack on Mondays · threshold tuning
  • Scenario panel: "if we do X, forecast moves Y"
Cadence · Daily AM · Weekly Monday
What ops do

The queues.

Deal desk, renewals, and pricing ops each receive a prioritized queue of exceptions with reason codes. Conforming deals flow without intervention; only true out-of-bounds items require review.

  • Deal-desk queue: only true exceptions, with reason codes
  • Pricing queue: re-quotes with recommended actions & proofs
  • Renewals queue: proactive engagement list, ranked by risk
  • Reconciliation is continuous — no quarter-end sprint
  • Clarification requests: owner & due-by explicit
Cadence · Real-time queues
What sellers experience

Almost nothing.

Minimal disruption is the design principle. Sellers work in the same CRM. They get faster quote turnaround on conforming deals and clearer guidance on the ones that need extra thought — delivered as a nudge in the tool they already use.

  • Same CRM · same quote tool · same workflow
  • Faster approvals on conforming deals (hours, not days)
  • Price-lock expiry warnings surfaced in the quote
  • Guidance on discount posture with the reason why
  • No new "AI tool" to learn or log into
Cadence · In-flow · embedded

The system is invisible to the 140 sellers. It is indispensable to the 18 people in deal desk, pricing, renewals, and FP&A. And it delivers a one-page morning brief to the 9 executives who steer the business.

06.2 · Data blueprint

What feeds the engine — and what the engine respects.

Six streams. One daily dataset.

The engine ingests the existing aggregation layer (plan, actuals, invoiced, accruals, backlog, pipeline, variance-to-plan) and extends it with four additional streams that today live in spreadsheets, PDFs, vendor portals, and people's heads. Each stream is normalized into the ontology — so rules fire the same way regardless of where the fact came from.

Vendor pricing is a first-class cost input.

In resale, the vendor price is the cost. The engine treats live vendor-price feeds with the same rigor as the margin-side constraints — continuous ingestion, price-lock windows tracked explicitly, tariff and FX overlays propagated into landed cost before a single margin calculation runs.

Fig. 02 — Data blueprint · resale commercial steering Six ingestion streams → normalized ontology → decision-ready dataset
STREAMS NORMALIZED CONSUMERS STREAM 01 · INTERNAL Data aggregation layer plan · actuals · invoiced · accruals STREAM 02 · INTERNAL Pipeline & opportunity signals CRM · quotes · backlog · stages STREAM 03 · INTERNAL Rules, guardrails, policies margin floors · disc auth · renewal bands STREAM 04 · INTERNAL Historical outcome data wins · losses · cycle times · deal shapes STREAM 05 · INTERNAL Unstructured text rep notes · emails · vendor bulletins STREAM 06 · EXTERNAL Market signals FX · tariffs · vendor announcements · demand COST INPUT · FIRST-CLASS Vendor pricing feed price-lock · street · tariff · FX NORMALIZED ONTOLOGY One daily dataset resolved · confidence-scored auditable · reproducible CONSUMER 01 Leadership pack CONSUMER 02 Pricing engine CONSUMER 03 Forecast build (daily P&L) CONSUMER 04 Scenario engine Click any stream · trace what it feeds
Decision logic · portable

Rules express what must be true — not which system tells us it is true. An adapter layer absorbs ERP migration and upstream schema changes. The workflow survives the transition; rules are authored once and survive any source swap beneath.

Stream 01Internal
Data aggregation layer.

The existing daily engine already produces these. Phase 1 ingests them unchanged — no disruption to current production flow.

  • Plan · actuals · invoiced · accruals · backlog
  • Variance-to-plan with point-in-time snapshots
  • Auditable history of every prior daily state
Stream 02Internal
Pipeline & opportunity signals.

CRM opportunity states, quote line items, stage transitions, backlog not yet delivered. Feeds gap-closure assessment and deal-level pricing.

  • Opportunity · stage · close-date · TCV
  • Quote · line items · discount · price-lock expiry
  • Distributor routing · vendor program tagging
Stream 03Internal
Rules, guardrails, policies.

The commercial playbook, expressed as executable logic. Not a PDF the model might attend to — a knowledge base the reasoner must satisfy.

  • Margin floors by product × segment × intent
  • Discount authority grid · renewal price bands
  • Vendor program eligibility · tier thresholds
Stream 04Internal
Historical outcome data.

Wins and losses, cycle times, deal shapes, discount-to-win-rate mappings. The foundation for predictive pipeline and win-rate modelling.

  • Won / lost opportunities with feature vectors
  • Cycle times by customer segment & deal shape
  • Discount-to-win-rate curves by product family
Stream 05Internal
Unstructured text.

The qualitative matter of a sales cycle. The neural front-end extracts facts; the symbolic layer asserts them into the ontology for the reasoner to consume.

  • Rep opportunity notes · CRM free-text fields
  • Customer procurement emails · RFP documents
  • Vendor bulletins · pricing notices · PDFs
Stream 06External
External market signals.

Context the business cannot see from its own books alone. FX spot rates, tariff schedules, vendor program announcements, regional demand indices.

  • FX spot · cross-rates for all billed currencies
  • Tariff schedules by corridor & product category
  • Vendor program announcements · partner portals
Vendor pricing

The vendor price is the cost in resale. The engine treats live vendor-price feeds with the same rigor as margin-side constraints — continuous ingestion, price-lock windows tracked explicitly, tariff and FX overlays propagated into landed cost before any margin calculation runs.

06.3 · Artifacts

The four things leadership actually receives.

Each artifact is generated continuously and read on a fixed cadence. No one logs into a tool to find out what's happening — the artifact arrives, and the decisions are waiting inside it. Below, sample content as it would appear to the executive team on the morning of this proposal.

Daily Leadership Control Pack
22 Apr 2026 · 06:45 UTC · Auto-generated
Q2 FY26 · Committed forecast
Steering view · Confidence band · Top actions
Committed forecast · Q2
$152.4M ± $3.6M
−2.8% vs plan · +1.2% vs rep rollup
$138M
$168M
What changed overnight
  • Helvetica Bank O-4417 · close-date inferred+$9.6M
  • EUR/USD −0.4% · 42 EU deals repriced−$0.8M
  • Cisco Q2 accelerator gap narrowed+$1.05M
  • 14 renewals flagged low-touch riskat risk
  • Tariff CH → US networking HW applied−48 bps
Decisions requested · Today
01 Approve desk-review re-price on 12 expired-lock quotes routed through TD Synnex EU. Margin recovery vs hold. +$247k
02 Sign off Helvetica O-4417 target 6 Jun close. Triggers Platinum unlock across Cisco Q2 book. +$1.05M
03 FX hedge EUR/GBP/CHF at today's rate across $46.8M European HW exposure. +58 bps
04 Release low-touch renewal engagement for 104 contracts, +2.4% price floor. +$17.2M def.
05 Escalate 3 deals above VP authority into Thursday steering — reason codes attached. review
Daily Fast Movers
22 Apr 2026 · 06:45 UTC · 12 of 941 opps
Where intervention actually matters.
Ranked by marginal impact on Q2 commit · With recommended posture
ID Customer & deal TCV Close & conf. Signal Posture Impact
O-4417 Helvetica Bank AG Cisco · PaloAlto · Azure · Mgd Svc $9.60M 04 Jun · 88% Tier lift Prioritize close · triggers Cisco Platinum unlock +$1.05M
O-4189 Kestrel Manufacturing Dell HW · 3y MSA $6.40M 12 May · 72% Lock exp Re-quote w/ 6% HW rebalance · preserve customer price +$182k
O-4032 Meridian Health Azure EA · 3y renewal $4.20M 30 May · 64% Disc req Desk review · 18% ask above rep auth; counter 12% + attach +$91k
O-3891 Lindqvist Industri AB NetApp · EUR billed €3.10M 21 May · 58% FX drag Hedge EUR · repost USD landed margin to deal +$74k
O-4512 Coastal Logistics Palo Alto NextWave $2.80M 18 May · 81% Co-sell Route via Azure Marketplace · MDF + quota double +$142k
O-4298 Northbridge Research HPE · 2y svc attach $2.60M 09 May · 77% Svc gap Attach managed services · pull-through at 4.2% margin +$109k
O-4401 Brightforge Studios Endpoint refresh · SMB $1.90M 27 May · 69% Lock exp Re-quote at current street · margin at risk −180 bps +$58k
O-4477 Saito Manufacturing K.K. Cisco DC · JPY billed ¥412M 02 Jun · 63% Stage stall Stuck in Evaluate 19d · trigger AE escalation + decision-maker meeting slip risk
O-4345 Prairie State Credit Union Renewal · no-touch $1.40M 06 May · 52% Churn sig Proactive engage · NRR trailing 88%, exec call this week +$1.18M def.

Showing 9 of 12 fast movers · ranked by marginal Q2 impact · +3 additional in steering queue for Thursday

Daily Lock-Risk
22 Apr 2026 · 06:45 UTC · 7-day window
Vendor price-lock exposure · next 7 days.
Margin at risk · Recommended posture · Owner & due-by
Already expired
$36.2M 118 quotes · re-quote
Expiring this week
$22.8M 74 quotes
Margin at risk (blended)
−170 bps if no action
Recoverable with action
$634k via re-quote ladder
Daily exposure · next 7 days
WED
23
$5.8M · 17q
THU
24
$4.2M · 14q
FRI
25
$3.6M · 11q
MON
28
$3.1M · 10q
TUE
29
$2.4M · 8q
WED
30
$2.0M · 7q
THU
01
$1.7M · 7q
Top vendor
Cisco · $14.8M
Top region
EMEA · 52% of exposure
Owner routing
Pricing ops · 4 AMs
Weekly Steering Pack
Week 17 · 20 Apr 2026 · Monday 08:00 UTC
Threshold tuning & recurring failure modes.
Where the guardrails need to move · Where leakage keeps happening
Threshold tuning this week
PR-DISC-04Rep discount authority · SMB segment
12.0%
14.0%
FC-DATE-01Abductive inference confidence floor
70%
75%
RN-RISK-05Low-touch renewal detection window
90d
120d
MS-ATTACH-02HW threshold for services flag
$1.0M
$750k
FX-PROP-01FX trigger sensitivity
1.5%
1.2%

Each change justified by trailing 4-week recall/precision on its rule firings

Recurring failure modes (last 4 weeks)
01
APAC-CLOUD pattern — Azure EA renewals with JPY billing auto-priced at list; losing against direct Microsoft sales.
7 occurrences · ~$2.4M leakage · new rule proposed: APAC-PR-11
02
Endpoint bundle override — SMB reps bundling HW + services at below-floor blended margin, using services to absorb HW discount.
14 occurrences · ~$1.1M leakage · tighter bundle-margin rule landing Wk 18
03
Tariff lag (US→CH) — 3.2% tariff surcharge not picked up in 9 quotes over the past 4 weeks. Fixed at source; back-applied.
9 occurrences · now closed · monitoring Wk 17
04
Distributor routing drift — 11% of TD Synnex-routed EU deals should have gone via Ingram Micro for tier-pricing advantage.
~$580k landed cost delta · routing rule update Wk 18
06.4 · Pricing mechanics

Deal pricing as a negotiation between constraints.

A deal price isn't a number. It's a feasible region.

Every live deal sits at the intersection of competing economic drivers: customer target, product-category margin floor, rep discount authority, vendor program eligibility, landed-cost reality, strategic intent.

Vendor cost is live, not stale.

The cost side is re-evaluated with every tick of the VendorPriceFeed. Price-lock windows are tracked explicitly, tariff and FX deltas propagate into landed cost before the margin calculation runs. The vendor price is the cost — it gets the same rigor as the margin constraint.

Services with subcontractors are modeled.

Where managed or professional services are delivered by a third party, the Subcontractor cost-to-serve is a first-class input. Pass-through margin on subcontracted work is enforced the same way as margin on resale line items — no hidden leakage in reconciliation.

Fig. 02 — Constraint-satisfaction pricing on a single deal O-4417 · Helvetica Bank AG · $9.60M · Cisco + PaloAlto + Azure + 36mo Mgd Svc
ECONOMIC DRIVER 01 Margin floor · 16.2% ECONOMIC DRIVER 02 Cisco Platinum · +180 bps ECONOMIC DRIVER 03 Client type · Strategic Retain ECONOMIC DRIVER 04 Geo · EMEA-CH · 3.2% tariff ECONOMIC DRIVER 05 Product mix · HW + SW + Svc ECONOMIC DRIVER 06 Strategic intent · Retain cyber CONSTRAINT REASONER solve( margin_floor = 16.2%, rebate_tier = Cisco_Pt, disc_auth = VP_limit, fx_tariff = propagated, strategic_weight = 1.4 ) FEASIBLE REGION 14 viable postures found Ranked by composite objective RECOMMEND RECOMMENDED POSTURE 14.8% disc · 16.4% GM (7% HW · 3% SW · 0% Svc rebalance) WHY THIS, NOT FLAT 15% → Hits customer target price exactly → Stays 20 bps above floor → Services mix protects attach rate → Routing TD Synnex beats Ingram → Closes Cisco Platinum gap in Q2 ∴ Composite advantage: +$1.18M
Landed economics (recommended posture)
Customer price$9.60M
Vendor cost (post-tariff, post-FX)$7.82M
Gross margin (pre-rebate)18.5%
Cisco Platinum rebate (if unlocked)−$212k ← cost offset
Managed services attach (36m MRR)+$96k/mo
Subcontractor cost-to-serve (12% of MRR)−$11.5k/mo
FX hedge cost$18k
Effective blended margin16.4%
Proof — why this price satisfies every constraint
Margin floor held: 16.4% ≥ 16.2% [PR-TARGET-07]
Rep discount within desk auth: 14.8% ≤ 15% [PR-DISC-04]
Cisco tier unlocks: attain 100.1% [RB-TIER-03]
Tariff + FX propagated: CH/US Q2 [FX-PROP-01]
Services attach lifts NRR: +18 bps [MS-ATTACH-02]
Strategic-Retain weight applied: 1.4× [STRAT-04]
06.5 · Forecasting mechanics

A daily P&L — every line traceable to its driver.

Today's forecast is a rollup plus judgment.

Rep pipeline plus variance-to-plan, trued up against actuals, accruals, and backlog — with experienced judgment applied at commit meetings to smooth known distortions. Works until it doesn't. The miss is discovered at quarter-end.

The Engine produces a daily P&L.

Same aggregation-layer elements plus live vendor pricing, market signals, and confidence-weighted pipeline — composed into a full P&L: Revenue layers on top, Cost layers in the middle, Gross Profit falling out at the bottom. Every line is a named operation; click to see the driving facts.

Fig. 03 — Daily P&L · Resale · Q2 FY26 · 22 Apr 2026 Click any line to drill into the driver
Revenue $152.4M
Committed revenue contracted · high-confidence
$94.5M
Driver

Signed contracts landing this quarter. 312 contracts · 94% confidence band on recognition timing. Source: aggregation layer + contract ontology.

Backlog conversion won-not-delivered landing Q2
$34.8M
Driver

Backlog from prior quarters expected to deliver in Q2 — weighted by historic conversion timing. 48 deals · 91% confidence. Held back: $2.1M pending fulfillment blocks.

In-period bookings pipeline × win-rate
$18.6M
Driver

New bookings expected to close and recognize revenue within Q2. Confidence-weighted against historical win rate by deal shape. 68% confidence band — the most volatile revenue layer.

Accruals delivered-not-invoiced
$4.5M
Driver

Work delivered but not yet invoiced — standard accrual treatment from the aggregation layer. High certainty; bookkeeping convention only.

Cost of goods & services $129.1M
Vendor COGS from VendorPriceFeed × volume
$102.4M
Driver

Live vendor pricing × landed volume per SKU. Price-lock windows tracked per quote; expired locks repriced at street. 118 quotes on expired locks today — margin impact −$634k if unaddressed.

Subcontractor cost-to-serve 3rd-party services delivery
$10.6M
Driver

Cost of third-party-delivered managed/pro services at 36mo contract terms, amortized to Q2 period. Pass-through margin policy enforced; no subcontractor work booked below floor.

Direct service delivery in-house cost-to-serve
$8.2M
Driver

In-house managed services and professional services delivery cost — utilization × blended rate from the services ontology. Held within band; no attention required this cycle.

FX impact non-USD exposure · live rates
$3.4M
Driver

Net cost impact from EUR/GBP/CHF movement against USD baseline. $46.8M of European HW exposure at Q2-open rates. Hedge recommendation sits in today's leadership pack.

Tariff overlays corridor-level surcharges
$2.8M
Driver

US → CH networking-HW tariff (3.2% on 38% of BOM for affected deals). Propagated into landed cost before margin calculation runs. 29 deals affected in current book.

Rebates (eligibility-weighted) vendor program offsets
−$2.1M
Driver

Cisco / PANW / Microsoft backend rebates, probability-weighted against attainment. Cisco Platinum unlock (+$1.05M) contingent on Helvetica Bank O-4417 closing by 06-30 — tracked in fast-movers.

Reserves & operational bad-debt, returns, small
$3.8M
Driver

Standard reserve policy applied to revenue layers. No unusual movement this cycle. Aggregation-layer convention.

Gross profit $23.3M
Gross profit $ revenue − all costs · ± $3.6M
$23.3M
How the confidence band decomposes

± $3.6M total — $0.8M from in-period booking uncertainty, $1.2M from vendor price-lock exposure, $0.9M from FX movement window, $0.4M from rebate attainment, $0.3M residual. Each component tracked to its driving ontology nodes.

Resale Gross Profit Margin the KPI in focus
15.3%
Today vs target

Today: 15.3%. Target (floor): 14.2%. Optimum (per scenario engine): 17.8% — achievable by tightening floor and pulling the 104 low-touch renewals into proactive engagement. This is the number the business is steering against.

Revenue layers Cost layers Gross profit & margin Bar widths are share of band total
Today · rollup + judgment
Static, monthly, opaque.

A single GP$ number debated at quarter-end meetings, with no named decomposition and no traceable link from line to driver. The miss is discovered too late to steer.

Engine · daily P&L
Every line named, traceable, drillable.

Revenue layers sum to top line. Cost layers sum to COGS&S. Gross profit falls out. Confidence decomposed by source. The KPI — Resale Gross Profit Margin — sits at the bottom, computed from the same facts every morning, defensible every morning.

06.6 · Scenario & if-then

Not just a forecast — a decision simulator.

Pricing decisions have feedback effects.

A higher target margin lifts gross margin percent but compresses win rate; at the extreme it reduces both revenue and absolute gross profit dollars. A lower margin floor wins more deals but leaks margin on the ones that would have closed anyway. Today these tradeoffs are debated in meetings with anecdote and instinct. The engine makes them visible and quantified.

Scenario runs in seconds, not days.

Because the entire commercial state lives in the ontology, leadership can perturb a driver — target margin, margin floor, vendor cost — and see every connected number respond with confidence bands attached. Every answer is decomposable to the rules that produced it. This is what turns leadership meetings from investigation into steering.

Fig. 04 — Interactive · target margin ↔ win rate ↔ revenue ↔ GP$ Drag the slider — watch three connected curves respond
100% 75% 50% 25% 0 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% TARGET MARGIN (%) optimum
Win rate Revenue (relative) Gross profit $ (relative)
Target margin
16.2%
current floor
Win rate
58.4%
of eligible pipeline
Revenue (index)
100/100
baseline
Gross profit $ (index)
100/100
baseline
Target margin · drag to explore 16.2%
8%12%16%20%24%28%
At 16.2% target margin the book sits near today's floor. Push higher and win rate drops faster than margin gains; push lower and margin erodes faster than new revenue recovers. Optimum GP$ sits at 17.8% target margin — two points above floor, one point below where today's panic-concession deals land.
Preset leadership scenarios · Q2 FY26 book
Scenario 01
Tighten floor +1pt.
Margin floor 15.2% → 16.2%
Win rate−3.1 pts
Revenue−$8.4M
GM %+72 bps
Gross profit $+$4.2M
Scenario 02
Loosen floor −1pt.
Margin floor 15.2% → 14.2%
Win rate+2.6 pts
Revenue+$9.1M
GM %−64 bps
Gross profit $−$2.8M
Scenario 03
Vendor cost +3%.
Cisco + PANW street +3% · no reprice
Win rateunchanged
Revenueunchanged
GM %−216 bps
Gross profit $−$11.4M
Scenario 04
Services attach +8 pts.
Managed services attach 32% → 40%
Win rate+1.4 pts
Revenue+$11.8M
GM %+94 bps
Gross profit $+$7.6M
06.7 · Steering patterns

The commercial steering patterns this resolves.

Every reseller commercial team develops a set of reflexes to compensate for unreliable signal — panic concessions near quarter-end, tribal-knowledge explanations in leadership reviews, spreadsheet reconciliation that replaces steering. These reflexes are expensive, and they compound. Below: the five patterns that most visibly block commercial steering today, and how the system resolves each. The full nine-pattern inventory, including timing integrity and policy drift, is available below.

Pattern 01

Late-cycle panic concessions — rebates, blanket discounts.

Before → After
Before · baseline behavior

Broad concessions used to "buy the quarter" because signal reliability is low and decisions are made under time pressure. Discounts land on deals that would have closed anyway.

After · steering workflow

Confidence bands plus a short fast-movers list isolate where intervention actually matters. Concessions become targeted posture decisions, not blanket behavior — applied to the 12 deals where they change outcomes, not the 941 where they don't.

Bottom-line impact

Prevents avoidable margin give-up. Concentrates concessions where they truly change outcomes.

Why execs feel it immediately

The daily pack replaces debate with a short list of actions and owners.

Pattern 02

Tribal-knowledge explanations in leadership review.

Before → After
Before · baseline behavior

"Why is this weird?" gets answered by whoever happens to know, or deferred because context lives in heads and inboxes. Decisions wait on backchannel pulls.

After · steering workflow

The workflow produces a structured what changed, why narrative and traceable reason outputs, reducing reliance on who happens to be in the room.

Bottom-line impact

Less decision latency; fewer costly delays that turn into urgency-driven margin erosion.

Why execs feel it immediately

Meetings stop being investigative — they become steering sessions.

Pattern 03

Spreadsheet reconciliation replaces steering.

Before → After
Before · baseline behavior

Meeting time is spent reconciling numbers, not deciding, because the forecast is hard to trust. Nine-and-a-half FTE-weeks per quarter-end chasing spreadsheet variance.

After · steering workflow

Signals are normalized into a daily decision-ready dataset and variance is decomposed into explicit named drivers. Reconciliation is a continuous graph operation, not a quarter-end sprint.

Bottom-line impact

Cuts hidden operating cost and reduces compounding errors that create late-cycle surprises.

Why execs feel it immediately

Leaders get a stable daily delta narrative instead of conflicting numbers.

Pattern 04

Silent price-lock erosion and re-quote churn.

Before → After
Before · baseline behavior

Price-protection windows expire, margin compresses quietly, and re-quotes pile up late. The damage is visible only in the margin print, by which point it's locked in.

After · steering workflow

Price-lock exposure is tracked explicitly on a 7-day horizon and surfaced early in the daily lock-risk list, with recommended posture and owner routing. Action happens while there is still time to respond cleanly.

Bottom-line impact

Prevents margin leakage, reduces timing-driven re-quotes, protects profitability under volatility.

Why execs feel it immediately

Lock-risk becomes a daily control item — not a late surprise.

Pattern 05

Manual guardrails create approval thrash.

Before → After
Before · baseline behavior

Pricing relies on manual checks with slow cycle times, frequent exceptions, and uneven outcomes across reps and regions. Deal desk drowns in routine approvals.

After · steering workflow

Guardrails become executable logic. Conforming deals flow quickly without desk intervention; only true out-of-bounds items require review, each with an explicit reason code and owner.

Bottom-line impact

Faster quoting for in-bounds deals, fewer exceptions, higher margin predictability.

Why execs feel it immediately

Fewer "everything is an exception" escalations reaching leadership.

+

Full pattern inventory — nine recurring patterns, fully mapped

The five cards above surface the most visible patterns. Four additional patterns show up less often in leadership view but cost the business as much as those above — particularly around late pricing changes, policy drift, and the deferred clarification loops that chew up cycle time.

Pattern Before · baseline After · steering workflow Bottom-line impact Why execs feel it
Late-cycle panic concessions Broad discounts used to "buy the quarter" because signal reliability is low. Confidence bands + fast-movers list concentrate concessions where they change outcomes. Prevents avoidable margin give-up. Daily pack replaces debate with actions and owners.
Tribal-knowledge explanations "Why is this weird?" answered by whoever happens to know; else deferred. Structured "what changed, why" narrative with traceable reason outputs. Less decision latency; fewer urgency-driven margin losses. Meetings become steering, not investigation.
Deferred clarification loops If unclear, leadership defers and burns hours waiting for sales or deal-desk explanations. Missing prerequisites become explicit requests with owners, due-bys, and expected impact. Reduces rework; prevents late escalations that force concessions. Fewer "we'll get back to you" moments.
Spreadsheet reconciliation replaces steering Meeting time spent reconciling numbers because the forecast isn't trusted. Normalized daily dataset; variance decomposed into explicit named drivers. Cuts hidden operating cost; reduces compounding errors. Stable daily delta narrative, not conflicting numbers.
Silent price-lock erosion Lock windows expire, margin compresses quietly; re-quotes pile up late. Lock exposure tracked on 7-day horizon, surfaced early with owner routing. Prevents margin leakage; protects profitability under volatility. Lock-risk becomes a daily control item.
Manual guardrails & approval thrash Manual checks; slow cycle times; uneven outcomes across reps and regions. Guardrails as executable logic; conforming deals flow; only true out-of-bounds items reviewed. Faster quoting; fewer exceptions; higher margin predictability. Fewer "everything is an exception" escalations.
Late pricing changes destabilize forecast Pricing shifts late in the cycle inject noise into forecasting and distort steering. Forecast confidence informs pricing posture; unstable high-impact deals get tighter control earlier. Fewer end-of-period swings; fewer reactive pricing moves. Fewer surprise deltas and last-minute reversals.
Policy drift — "exceptions become the norm" Unstructured overrides become routine; governance collapses into urgency management. Overrides become reason-coded decisions; weekly steering tunes thresholds based on recurring failure modes. Shrinks exception surface area; reduces recurring leakage drivers. Weekly pack makes recurring failure modes visible and actionable.
Timing integrity — "no dates," quarter misplacement Timing and linkage gaps distort forward views and force manual cleanup; trust erodes. Forecast-ready gating prevents structurally incomplete items from contaminating the forecast; remediation is routed early with owners. Less artificial variance; more stable commit accuracy; fewer late-cycle cleanups. Execs stop arguing "is this real" — they start deciding "what do we do."
07 · DEMO

GP First Instance — a live Q2 P&L.

The GP First Instance is the first productionized run of the Commercial Steering Engine, focused on the Resale Gross Profit Margin KPI. What follows is the first instance walkthrough — a live Q2 review against today's book. The CFO wants a committed number. The CRO wants pricing discipline. The COO wants to know which deals are real. The rep roll-up arrived this morning — $378M in open pipeline across 941 opportunities — and, as every quarter, a material chunk of it isn't in a state anyone can reason over. Dates missing. Prices stale. Discounts applied without context. Renewals treated as commodity line-items.

Below: the snapshot. Then: how the process traditionally runs, how a pure LLM would handle it, and how a neurosymbolic system handles it — not just producing a cleaner number but reasoning across the enterprise ontology to surface specific actions the commercial team can take this week. Every figure traceable to its source.

Pipeline snapshot · Q2 FY26 · Resale book

PIPE-2026-Q2 · Pulled 22 Apr 2026 · 09:14 UTC
Open pipeline
$378M 941 opportunities
Committed forecast
$156.8M sales-rep rollup
Blended GM target
14.2% corporate
Geos
NA · EMEA · APAC 28 countries billed
Mix (TCV)
HW 36 · SW 27 · Cloud 23 · Svc 14
Top vendors
Cisco · Microsoft · Palo Alto · Dell · NetApp
Renewals due Q2
$106.4M 780 contracts
Prior qtr forecast miss
−6.4% −$10.2M to commit
Deals w/ missing close date
$54.0M 212 opportunities
Quotes w/ expired price-lock
$36.2M 118 quotes > 7d
Deals above rep discount auth.
$24.8M 78 opportunities
Finance reconciliation
22 FTE-weeks per quarter-end

Before introducing any AI, here's the workflow the commercial ops and FP&A teams run every quarter. The process is sound — but it's slow, uneven across reps and regions, and heavily dependent on manual reconciliation in the final two weeks.

Step 01
Rep rollup

Each rep updates CRM opportunities — stage, close date, commit flag. Quality varies by rep and by geography.

Step 02
Deal-desk triage

Deals above authority are escalated to deal desk. Discount requests reviewed; pricing is re-quoted where vendor terms have shifted.

Step 03
FP&A reconciliation

Finance reconciles CRM rollup against ERP-booked revenue, vendor rebate accruals, and service backlog. Excel-heavy.

Step 04
Renewals review

Renewals managers work the top-dollar expiries. Long tail under $50k gets automated quotes at list-minus-standard-uplift.

Step 05
Commit & judgment

CRO, CFO and region leads hold a two-hour call. Final commit is a haircut on rep rollup based on experience.

Slow, uneven, and reconciled by hand.

Quarter-end takes 9–10 finance FTE-weeks. Two reps looking at similar deals routinely produce different discount decisions. When a number is challenged — by a CFO, an auditor, or a vendor asking for a rebate true-up — the rationale lives in an email thread or a spreadsheet with a broken macro. Last quarter's miss was −7.8% to commit; no one could tell you which segment or which rule drove it.

  • Missing close dates on $54.0M of open pipeline — un-forecastable at the line level
  • Expired vendor price-locks on $36.2M of live quotes — margin eroding silently
  • Uniform margin targets applied to strategic, commodity, and co-sell deals alike
  • Vendor program eligibility (tier, rebate, MDF) reconciled weeks after bookings
  • Renewals under $50k quoted by rule of thumb; churn risk invisible until it fires
  • 22 finance FTE-weeks per quarter-end to reconcile CRM ↔ ERP ↔ vendor portals

A pure LLM approach: feed the pipeline rollup into a long-context prompt along with the pricing policy and last quarter's actuals, and ask for a committed forecast and pricing recommendations. Fast, fluent, and dangerous to rely on. Here is what the model produced.

01# PROMPT: "You are the FP&A lead. Given the Q2 pipeline rollup, the pricing policy PDF, and last quarter's actuals, produce a committed forecast and top-10 pricing actions."
02> Analysis: Pipeline looks healthy.
03> Historical close rate at this stage is ~43%, suggesting
04  bookable revenue of roughly $162.5M for Q2.
05> Recommend committing $158M, a touch above rep rollup,
06  with upside to $168M if two large Cisco refreshes close on time.
07> Pricing: tighten discount governance above 15%. Consider a
08  2-point uplift on renewals to protect margin.
09> Top action: review the top 10 largest deals with deal desk.
10# Narrative delivered in fluent prose. No citations. No math shown.

Confident. Fluent. Substantively wrong.

The output reads like something a chief of staff might draft. It is also materially incorrect on several counts that an experienced commercial leader would catch — and that the CFO will discover three weeks into the quarter, when the actuals don't match.

  • Ignored the $54.0M of date-less opportunities. The model treated the rollup as complete. 212 deals have no close date in CRM; the model did not infer them, did not flag them, did not reduce the commit accordingly.
  • Missed the $36.2M of expired price-locks. Vendor pricing windows close at 7 days. 118 quotes sit past that window; at current street prices, landed margin on that tranche is down 170 bps. The model applied last-week's cost assumptions.
  • Recommended a uniform 2-point renewal uplift. The pricing policy differentiates by customer tier, vendor program, and strategic intent. Applied flat, this uplift wins the low-risk renewals (already at risk of being left on the table) and loses the strategic logos (where the right answer was to hold price and add services).
  • No FX or tariff propagation. EUR and GBP have moved 2–3% in three weeks. 108 open European hardware deals are still quoted at Feb cost basis. The model has no machinery to ripple this through.
  • Rebate tier blind spot. Cisco Q2 accelerator ends 30 June. The book sits 4 deals below the Platinum threshold. Closing a specific $9.6M deal in May — not just any deal — unlocks 180 bps of backend rebate across the entire quarter's Cisco volume. The model did not surface this.
  • Non-reproducible. Running the same prompt tomorrow with the same rollup produces a different commit and a different top-10. No audit trail.

The neurosymbolic system runs the rollup through five stages: neural extraction into the ontology, symbolic enrichment from live external sources, rule-engine evaluation against policy, neural explanation grounded in the proof, and finally cross-domain reasoning to produce specific actions. Every step is inspectable.

Stage 01 · Neural extraction — pipeline parsed into ontology instances
01Opportunity(id=O-4417, customer="Helvetica Bank AG", region="EMEA-CH", tcv=USD 9.60M, stage=Propose, closeDate=NULL)
02Quote(id=Q-8821, opp=O-4417, discount=0.17, margin_rep=0.148, validUntil=2026-04-19 ← EXPIRED)
03LineItem(Q-8821, sku=C9300-48UXM, qty=210, vendor=Cisco, routedVia=TD Synnex EU)
04LineItem(Q-8821, sku=PA-5445, qty=14, vendor=PaloAlto, program=NextWave_Platinum)
05LineItem(Q-8821, sku=AZURE-EA-3Y, qty=1, vendor=Microsoft, coSellVia=Azure Marketplace)
06ManagedService(attaches=Q-8821, term=36m, mrr=USD 96.0k, sla="Gold")
07# 940 more opportunities extracted identically. 212 close dates missing — flagged for inference.
Stage 02 · Symbolic enrichment — ontology joins to live external sources
01PriceFeed(Cisco, C9300-48UXM, date=2026-04-22) → street_up +4.2% vs Q-8821 lock
02FX(USD/CHF) = 0.902 (was 0.876 at quote date) → −2.9% landed margin on CHF-billed portion
03VendorProgram(Cisco_Q2_Accelerator).deadline=2026-06-30 · current_attain=94.8% · gap_to_Platinum=USD 6.2M
04CloseDate(O-4417) ← abductive inference from deal-shape(Cisco refresh · CH banking · Propose→Close=62d) → 2026-06-04 ±9d
05Customer(Helvetica Bank).strategicIntent="retain_cyber" · NRR_trailing=108% · churn_risk=LOW
06Tariff(US→CH networking_HW, 2026-Q2) = 3.2% surcharge · applies to 38% of BOM
Stage 03 · Rule engine evaluation — every applicable guideline fires deterministically
RuleConditionInputsOutcome
FC-DATE-01Missing closeDate: infer from deal-shape abductively or downgrade commit212 opps · avg TCV $254kInferred
PR-LOCK-02If quote.validUntil < today: refresh cost basis, recompute margin, flag re-quote118 quotes · $36.2MRe-quote
PR-DISC-04If discount > rep_authority(segment,tier): route to deal desk78 opps · $24.8MRefer
PR-TARGET-07Margin floor differs by (product_family × customer_segment × strategic_intent)Helvetica · Strategic-Retain · CyberFloor 16.2%
RB-TIER-03Cisco Platinum threshold: close $6.2M gap before 2026-06-30 to unlock +180 bpsQ2 Cisco pipeline = $58.4MUnlock $1.05M
FX-PROP-01EUR/GBP/CHF moves > 1.5%: recompute landed margin on open EU-billed quotes108 quotes · $46.8MReprice
RN-RISK-05Renewal within 90d · NRR < 95% · no-touch: flag for proactive engagement$17.2M · 104 contractsEngage
MS-ATTACH-02HW deal > $1M without managed-services attach: flag pull-through opportunity29 deals · $47.2M TCVAttach
CO-SELL-01Marketplace co-sell eligible: route through hyperscaler for funding + quota credit19 deals · $10.6M$478k funding
FC-RECON-09CRM ↔ ERP ↔ vendor-portal reconciliation as a continuous graph operation941 opps · 780 contractsContinuous
Stage 04 · Neural explanation — forecast narrative grounded in the proof tree
01# Narrative generated from rule firings — every claim cites a rule ID and a fact ID
02Q2 commit (reasoned): USD 150.4M ± 3.6M · 4.1% below rep rollup [FC-DATE-01, PR-LOCK-02]
03Blended GM (forecast): 15.4% vs 14.2% target [PR-TARGET-07, RB-TIER-03, MS-ATTACH-02]
04Primary margin drag: expired price-locks on $36.2M → −48 bps blended [PR-LOCK-02]
05Primary margin lift: Cisco Platinum unlock if O-4417 lands by 2026-06-30 → +$1.05M [RB-TIER-03]
06Renewal risk: $17.2M of low-touch renewals with churn signal → proactive outreach by 2026-05-10 [RN-RISK-05]
07Services attach gap: 29 HW deals > $1M without managed-services → $7.2M MRR at risk of leaving table [MS-ATTACH-02]
Stage 05 · Cross-domain reasoning — specific actions for this week
01# Constraint-satisfaction across pricing, rebate, renewal, and FX ontologies
02solve(deal_mix, discount_grid · margin_floor=0.162 · rebate_lift=[Cisco_Pt, PANW_NW] · fx_hedge=CHF/EUR)
03Action 1: Prioritize close of O-4417 (Helvetica Bank, $9.6M) by 2026-06-04.
04   Pulls Cisco tier to Platinum. Unlocks 180 bps across $58.4M Q2 Cisco volume → +$1.05M.
05Action 2: Re-quote 118 expired-lock quotes this week at current street + tariff.
06   Offer 6% HW / 3% services rebalance. Preserves customer price, recovers +$634k margin.
07Action 3: Route 19 marketplace-eligible deals through Azure co-sell.
08   Unlocks $478k MDF, +8 pts attach uplift, quota double-count for Microsoft BU.
09Action 4: Proactive-engage 104 low-touch renewals before 2026-05-10.
10   Price floor +2.4% · services uplift · defends $17.2M, expected recovery ~84%.
11Action 5: FX-hedge $46.8M of EUR/GBP/CHF exposure at 2026-04-23 rate.
12   Locks +58 bps on European HW book for the quarter.
13# Net of all five actions: expected Q2 commit $154.2M · blended GM 16.6% · +240 bps to plan.

A number, a proof, a set of actions.

Unlike the LLM, the NSAI system didn't stop at a fluent paragraph. It filled in the missing CRM dates with abductive inference, caught every expired price-lock and recomputed landed margin, applied differentiated margin floors by segment × product × intent, and then reasoned across six ontologies — pricing, rebate, renewal, marketplace, FX, and services — to produce five specific moves the commercial team can make this week. Every number traces to a rule ID and a source.

Commit: $60.1M Blended GM: 16.4% +160 bps vs plan $836k margin uplift vs LLM plan Reconciliation: continuous Proof tree: exportable
Live · Watch both models run

See it for yourself.

Press Run. Both systems receive the Q2 resale pipeline at the same moment. Watch the LLM sprint to a fluent commit while the neurosymbolic reasoner extracts, enriches, evaluates rules, and composes a proof tree — deductively, causally, and by constraint-satisfaction — to produce actions for the week. Every number traced to a source.

LLM · single-pass promptGenerative AI
0.0s
Neurosymbolic · ontology + rulesHybrid reasoner
0.0s
Same pipeline · very different thinking
LLM-only
Neurosymbolic
Decision
Commit $62M · unexamined
Commit $60.1M · proven
Critical signals caught
2 of 10
10 of 10
Domains reasoned across
One prompt
6 ontologies
Audit trail
Prose narrative
Proof tree
Expected margin impact
+$836k vs LLM plan · +160 bps
Run again tomorrow
Different answer
Same answer
08 · ROADMAP

Implementable — without a big-bang replacement.

The path from today's commercial operation to the full steering system is deliberately incremental. Nothing rips and replaces. Nothing requires sellers to learn a new tool. Each phase builds on the prior one, delivers value on its own, and can be paused or re-scoped without losing ground. Four phases, sequenced to build confidence:

ERP migration · portability

The broader context: the business is in an ERP migration window with multiple systems underneath forecasting and pricing scheduled for replacement. The approach is designed to work now, using current sources, while remaining portable as schemas change — decision logic is deliberately separated from source-specific implementation, so the workflow survives the transition. New sources plug in through an adapter layer; rules do not need to be rewritten.

01 10 weeks

GP First Instance.

The first productionized run of the Commercial Steering Engine, focused on the Resale Gross Profit Margin KPI. One commercial motion, end-to-end, shipping in ten weeks — proving the loop works before we expand scope.

What ships in 10 weeks
  • Ontology instance populated from existing aggregation layer
  • Pricing rules authored & back-tested against 12 months of bookings
  • Daily leadership control pack, fast-movers, lock-risk artifacts live
  • Weekly steering pack with threshold tuning rhythm
  • GP P&L build running alongside today's forecast, reconciling nightly
02 Next

Expand coverage.

Move additional resale scope into the engine — more product families, more customer segments, more vendors. Each addition reuses the ontology core; only the local rules and data sources change.

Expansion vectors
  • Additional product families brought into guardrailed flow
  • New vendor programs authored as first-class rule sets
  • Renewal bands extended to lower-TCV long tail
  • Rule authoring transferred to in-house ownership
03 Later

Scale across geos.

Bring additional regions into the engine. Each geo inherits the same ontology and artifact cadence; local FX, tariff, and distributor relationships plug in through the adapter layer.

Per-geo plug-in
  • Local FX & tariff sources wired into VendorPriceFeed
  • Regional distributor relationships modeled explicitly
  • Country-level margin floors and rules layered on the global set
  • Regional steering cadence aligned to the global one
04 Beyond

Extend to services.

Apply the same engine shape to professional services, managed services, and staff augmentation. Different commercial primitives, identical structure — one ontology, many motions.

Service domains
  • Professional services — fixed-scope project economics
  • Managed services — recurring-revenue forecasting & renewals
  • Staff augmentation — rate-card & utilization pricing
  • Cross-domain reasoning — portfolio optimization, vendor mix
Outlook · Beyond resale

The same system, the same shape — three adjacent domains.

Domain 01
Professional services.

Fixed-scope IT & communications project work — design, deployment, migration, implementation. The commercial primitives are different in shape but identical in structure to resale.

  • Ontology: Engagement · Workpackage · Role · Rate
  • Pricing: utilization × blended rate × margin floor by practice
  • Forecasting: booked revenue + in-flight WIP + pipeline × win-rate
  • Steering: staffing confirmation, scope change control, utilization drift
Domain 02
Managed services.

Recurring-revenue IT & communications operations — MSP, MSSP, NOC/SOC, cloud ops. Recurring-revenue forecasting rides on the same contract & renewal ontology already proven in resale.

  • Ontology: Service · SLA · Tier · Renewal · NRR
  • Pricing: cost-to-serve + tier + stickiness + customer intent
  • Forecasting: ARR waterfall with churn, upsell, renewal risk
  • Steering: SLA breach early warning, renewal engagement queue
Domain 03
Staff augmentation.

IT & comms resource placement — contract staffing, T&M engagements, specialist sourcing. Most margin-sensitive of the three; benefits most from live rate & availability signals.

  • Ontology: Placement · Consultant · Client · Rate · Duration
  • Pricing: bill rate − pay rate − burden, by specialty & geo
  • Forecasting: placement pipeline × fill probability × duration
  • Steering: bench-risk list, client rate-pressure monitoring
The throughline

The same ontology, the same reasoner, the same four artifacts — applied to a different commercial motion. What gets built for resale in Phase 1 becomes the platform that runs every commercial decision across every line of business.